Wind Power Does Not Impact Residential Property Value

Yesterday the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory released a new report: "The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values in the United States: A Multi-Site Hedonic Analysis." The full report is available for download at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/re-pubs.html - and associative Power Point presentation is available for download at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/emp-ppt.html.

With a view toward addressing community concerns regarding the growth of the U.S. wind industry, the report authors and researchers collected data on approximately 7,500 homes sales within 10 miles of 24 existing wind facilities in 9 states. Using 8 different hedonic pricing models, as well as repeat sales and sales volume models, the research determined that statistically there is no widespread negative impact on the sales of residential properties that are located near wind facilities. Please review the full report for a complete analysis and summation.

Information on Small Wind

WECC recently launched a small wind information site to assist consumers and businesses by providing information on the benefits of a small wind solution, help determine if a small wind system is right for you, and with providing guidance on implementation. Siting, understanding interconnection with your utility and turbine selection are critical factors to understand; although there are many additional factors to consider. Especially with turbine selection, since there currently is no true certification system for small wind turbine generators, the buyer is at the mercy of claims by the turbine manufacturer. Although this soon changing in North America.

The Small Wind Certification Counsel now exists and will begin to accept applications from wind turbine generator manufacturers in early 2010. In fact, at next week's AWEA Small & Community Wind Conference and Exhibition in Detroit, the SWCC with submit and approve plans that will be utilized to certify wind turbines to the AWEA Small Wind Turbine Performance and Safety Standard. This is a significant step toward protecting consumers and improving industry credibility and performance.

WECC offers a FREE WindSight initial wind assessment with no obligation. Upon submitting basic information into a simple online form regarding your site and electric usage, a report will provide prepared by a WECC Wind Technician. The report will be sent to you that informs of the wind regime at your location, an initial siting assessment and a recommendation on the turbine size (if good wind exists) to help you get started with the decision process. Give it a try!

The Aesthetic Excuse

Americans have long been known for our obsession with appearances. Our collective beauty obsession and the pursuit of perfection have spawned multiple magazines, miracle creams and, no doubt, trips to the therapist’s office.

You may be wondering why I’m discussing the American aesthetic on a blog about wind energy. Did you know that there is a movement against wind energy based almost entirely on the aesthetics of wind turbines?

Perhaps it’s just me but I cannot find a single aesthetically pleasing thing about a power plant. I’ll admit, my opinion may be unfairly influenced by the ever present aroma of chemical pollutants or the surprising sting of smog as it hits my eyes – but I just don’t get it. I cannot find any logic to the argument that since some people in our country don’t like the way that turbines look, we’re going to continue poisoning ourselves by building more of what is apparently seen as the more attractive option – the conventional power plant.

I’ve included some photos for comparison:

Feel free to tell me how crazy I am for not finding the smoke spewing, pollutant belching power plant more aesthetically pleasing than a wind farm.

Wind turbines, some of which are designed to be no taller than a cell tower, are an excellent way to produce our own clean, renewable energy. We've grown accustomed to the sight of cell towers, water towers and utility poles on the horizon - why not turbines?

I think we can all agree that it is in our best interest to be less reliant on foreign powers for our energy needs. We all share a common desire to protect that which is dear to us. Decisions that will affect the future of the prairies, lakes, beaches, rivers and mountains of this great country should not be made based on someone’s idea of beauty.

*Power plant photo from www.coal-is-dirty.com, Wind farm photo from www.focalenergy.nl

Wind Project Risk Assessment

Risk management is critically important in a wind project. A systematic method is required to identify risk factors, quantify the risk factors, compute the impact of risk factors on project performance and mitigate the risk.

Download Wind Project Risk Assessment whitepaper for details. In it a framework is presented for: Categorizing risk, quantifying risk and assessing impact of risk on the project. In addition, strategies for mitigating risk are described.

Risk is categorized based on phases of a wind project:

• Planning/installation risk is related to factors during the pre-energy production stage that impact the cost of and timeframe for implementation of a project.
  
• Operational risk factors are those that lead to uncertainty in revenue and cost after the implementation, which is during the energy production phase of the project.
  
• Systemic risk factors are those that impact both implementation and operations.

Planning/Installation Risk	Operational Risk	Systemic Risk
Prospecting risk: Cost and time of finding the most suitable parcel of land for wind farm	Wind resource: Uncertainty in energy production due to wind speed, shear, turbulence, air density and others	Interest rate risk
Land lease risk: Cost and time of signing a land lease agreement	Turbine and plant performance: Uncertainty in energy production due to power curve, losses	Currency risk
Permitting risk: Cost and time of state/local government permits, environmental and transmission permits	Grid access: Energy cannot be delivered due to grid outage	Locale risk

In the framework risk is quantified along three parameters:

• What does this risk factor impact? Choose one or more.
  
  • Revenue
    
  • Cost
    
  • Time
    
• What is the amount of uncertainty?
  
• What is the impact of risk factor on Revenue, Cost and Time? And how does the impact change over time?

The impact of risk is estimated based on the P84, P90 and more generically Pn estimates, where n is any number greater than 50 and less than 100. In the whitepaper the concept is explained through examples.

Article written by Pramod Jain

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New Free WindSight Small Wind Assessment

We recognize the inherent value of wind energy projects, of all sizes. And, no matter the size of your project, you need to do your homework. For everyone considering a wind project, we've created the Free WindSight Assessment for you. Whether you are just curious about what kind of wind resource your site has, or if you have a real project in mind, Our WindSight Assessment is a quick and easy way for you determine if wind will work for you.

Our simple, straight-forward online form takes just a few minutes to fill in, then we get your report back to you in two days. We're going to ask about your electricity use, so have your latest utility bill handy. Our WindSight Assessment is your first step to going green. Go to www.wind-consulting.com/websales/ to request your free WindSight report.

Sustainable Energy Solutions for Facility Managers with Behind-the-Meter Wind Projects

Commercial applications of single or a few wind turbines with rated power capacity in the range of 50KW to 2,500KW are the focus of this blog. Such turbines can be cost effective for a wide range of applications: Factories; warehouses; office parks; housing communities; schools/colleges; hospitals; municipal facilities like jails; water treatment facilities; and others. These projects are referred to as "Behind the Meter" projects.

A white paper is available that briefly describes: How such projects can fit into your energy mix; how much energy can be produced; how is variability of wind energy managed; what are the incentives; what is the cost of wind energy; what is the ideal location of a wind project; and what to avoid.

It concludes that such projects can deliver electricity at stable costs (because raw material is free) and under the right wind conditions such projects may deliver electricity at a cost that is below retail.

Article written by Pramod Jain

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Small Wind: Buyer Beware!

Small wind solutions are increasingly becoming financially viable thanks to local and federal incentives, and from a technical perspective the quality factor is improving. The historically negative aspect about installing a small wind solution was that it would take an extraordinarily long period of time to pay back associative costs; if ever during the expected life span of the wind turbine generator.

From my vantage point ‘quality’ and ‘pricing’ in small wind are among the largest concerns. However, of greater concern is that there seems to be a growing abundance of misleading, if not deceptive advertising and false or unrealistic claims by many manufacturers. These take the form of claiming higher energy output, faster payback periods (using higher than what can normally be expected wind speeds in their energy calculations), and other types of unethical claims and behaviors.

But help is on the way, manufacturers of small wind turbines that form the legitimate face of the small wind industry are in the process of creating accountability within their segment of the industry. In addition to industry events, we are seeing the advent of the Small Wind Certification Council. We may soon see a certification process that will eliminate the industry’s seedier side. New small wind turbine generators are rapidly emerging from individual’s garages to manufacturers in both newer vertical and the more traditional horizontal models.

Vertical wind technology remains in its infancy and energy power output claims by manufacturers are almost always overstated…sometimes grossly overstated (the same applies for many horizontal wind turbine generators on the market). In my view, only one vertical wind turbine generator (VWTG) manufacturer is really trying to get it right (I applaud Mariah Power) by subjecting its product to the testing rigors of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). After NREL suspended testing for mechanical failure, Mariah Power continues to try and ‘get it right’ through modifications and through an independent testing regime. As of today WECC does not recommend any vertical wind turbine generator to our clients.

Note: Relative to the topic of VWTGs, Mick Sagrillo offers a strongly worded and germane Open Letter to Vertical Wind Access Turbine Manufacturers – worth the read!

We must recognize that in the current environment in most cases the manufacturer claims of power production, payback, power curve, size of generator vs. actual power output, and conditions of internal testing are solely the manufacturer’s, and the consumer must be able to trust that information that is presented to them is indeed reliable. In my view, to determine legitimacy any small turbine as a viable small wind solution, the manufacturer must subject their machine to the rigors of independent testing until such time that the Small Wind Certification Council has codified its processes and independent testing/reporting becomes an industry standard. Using the power curve and energy output data from an entity with no connection to the manufacturer adds strength and proves the manufacturer’s assertions. Up until now in most cases, we only have the manufacturer’s data in order to complete a cost/benefit analysis before purchasing a small wind turbine generator.

A sad fact is that in the past year many, many inventors and manufacturers are emerging in the ‘small wind’ space and the ‘checks and balances’ are not yet in place to protect the burgeoning small wind industry from itself. Until the Small Wind Certification Council gains some ‘legs and teeth’ and the legitimate small wind manufacturers gain momentum in policing the industry, we can expect continued consumer confusion and in some cases, unchecked deceptive practices. The long and short of this is Small Wind: Buyer Beware!

Article written by Wayne Hildreth
Email Wayne at hildreth@frombeginningtowind.com
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Impact of Variability and Uncertainty of Wind Resources on the Grid

Fact: The amount of wind energy that is produced and delivered to the grid depends on the wind speed.

Fact: Although wind speeds can be forecasted (uncertainty in forecast can be reduced), the variability in wind speed cannot be controlled. Meaning wind has its own schedule, we may be able to predict it, but we cannot match its schedule of the demand schedule.

Fact: The goal of a Utility is to provide reliable power, whenever the customer demands (of course within reason).

Question: What happens when wind is strong (high supply) and there is low demand on the grid?

Question: What happens when there is no wind (low supply) and demand is high on the grid?

Before answering these questions let me present the background. For simplicity there are three types of generators in a grid: Base load generators, spinning reserve and non-spinning reserves.

Base load generators are the large thermal and nuclear power plants that supply electricity. These generators operate 24x7, and produce almost constant amount of electrical power running close to rated power capacity.

Spinning reserves are generators that are spinning (or on) all the time and react of changes in electrical energy demand. Examples are natural gas fired and hydro generators. The amount of fuel is regulated by the demand. These generators are typically running at low output but can react to changes in demand quickly by increasing or decreasing output without sharp drop in efficiency.

Non-spinning reserves are generators that are turned on in case of large spike in demand or large decrease in supply. The startup time is 10 to 30 minutes. In case of unexpected events, these reserves relieve spinning reserves running at full throttle.

These reserves are pooled across utilities and grid operators manage uncertainties in demand and supply with reserves they own and moving energy from other utilities.

When wind energy is added the grid, it introduces variability to the supply side. The same mechanisms of spinning and non-spinning reserves which are used to manage variability in the grid are also used to manage wind energy variability. Meaning when wind energy is on, spinning reserves reduce output. According to Brady and Gramlich[1], when there is high penetration of wind energy, there may be a need to increase reserves, but the increase is modest. Studies have shown that integration of 10 to 20 percent wind can cost $0.005/kWh.

[1] D. Brady, R. Gramlich, “Getting Smart About Wind and Demand Response,” Wind Systems, pp. 28-33, July 2009.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Small wind - Is it right for you?

The search for affordable and sustainable energy sources in today’s struggling economy may have you looking toward the small wind market. Small wind projects –those 100kW and below - can prove beneficial for small businesses, homes, manufacturing plants, schools and municipalities given the right conditions. However, small wind is not feasible for every situation. Before thinking any further about a small wind project, consider the following.

Small wind is a practical solution for you if:

You have sufficient wind

No wind, no go. A wind speed of at least 6 m/s, or 12mph, is the current standard for feasible and economically viable wind projects of this size.

You have enough space to support the project

A general recommendation is at least one acre of space in a rural setting. It may work in urban settings however, if there is an unobstructed wind flow. Wind turbines work most efficiently when the wind flow is streamlined.

Tall structures are allowed in your area

If there are strict zoning ordinances in your area that would prevent a feasible turbine tower height, small wind may not be right for you. We recommend a fall zone of at least one and one-half the length of the turbine.

You have a realistic picture of your energy demand

Small wind projects can reduce your electricity bill by 50-90%, given an adequate wind resource and hub height. The key is matching your energy demand to turbine power output.

You are comfortable with a long-term investment

Although incentives and grants make wind energy projects more competitive and economically feasible, small wind projects will generally have a longer payback period compared with other investments. If you are looking for a quick return on investment, small wind probably isn’t for you.

Article written by Sarah Smith

Email Sarah at smith@frombeginningtowind.com

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Common mistakes to avoid in your small wind project

A large fraction of small wind projects turn out to be subpar financial investments because of simple mistakes made in the initial phases of project development. This entry focuses on those common mistakes and provides simple steps that can be taken to ensure a more viable project from the performance and financial perspectives. For more details see the associated whitepaper.

Small turbines, with power ratings of less than 100KW, are being installed at a rapid pace. These wind projects are being used to power small businesses, buildings, malls, houses and a variety of other applications. Unlike the multi-million dollar large scale projects that undergo rigorous wind resource, siting, and financial assessments, small wind projects undergo significantly less analysis and preparation. The end result generally reflects the lack of preparation, as turbines produce less energy than advertised.

In order to attain on par financial performance of small wind projects the following due diligence must be performed:

• Ensure that the energy production used in the calculation is based on your local wind conditions and based on independently tested or certified power curve.
  
• Ensure that the wind speeds used in the calculations have been verified through onsite measurement or some other means.
  
• A location has been chosen that will receive unobstructed wind and minimum turbulence from obstacles and local vegetation.
  
• Ensure that the turbine is well built and is suitable for your environment and,
  
• Check if the turbine is certified; if it is not, obtain test results
  

If the proper due diligence is not performed you are likely to be negatively surprised by the results.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Use of Wind Turbines to Capture Energy from Air Exhaust

There are several air exhaust applications where large volume of air is pumped externally continuously. Examples are: Coal mines; covered parking lots; and, industrial air handling systems. The first two applications extract contaminated air necessary to maintain satisfactory air quality, and the third application is to use air to transport materials, remove moisture, etc.

Using the above examples, a natural assumption is that the exhaust emissions can be captured and converted into useable energy. Let us consider a few scenarios:

1. Attach a wind turbine directly to the exhaust. In this scenario the exhaust air (speed = V_a, Kinetic energy = K_a) is directly fed to the turbine; the turbine extracts (K_b), a fraction of the kinetic energy in the wind; the remaining kinetic energy is expelled (K_c) with wind speed = V_c. In this scenario, the turbine is able to extract K_b, which will be less than (K_a – K_c); losses will reduce the amount of electrical energy generated.
   

   Assume that the original exhaust system used K₀ amount of energy, which produced an exhaust with kinetic energy of K_a.

   At this point let us ask the question, what if the exhaust system reduced the amount of energy used from K₀ to K₀ – K_b? This would lower the exhaust kinetic energy from K_a to K_c, assuming no losses. So placing an exhaust turbine is equivalent to reducing the input energy of the system.
   

   Therefore, when losses are taken into account, it is more energy efficient to reduce the input energy rather than install an exhaust turbine. Of course reducing the input energy does not cost anything, whereas installing a turbine incurs a cost.
   

   To recap, it is much more efficient to reduce the overall energy consumption of the system from K₀ to K₀-K_b, rather than place a turbine to extract K_b energy. Both lead to expulsion of K_c amount of energy.
   

   So in this scenario an exhaust turbine does not make sense.

2. Place a wind turbine at some distance from and in relation to the exhaust duct. In this situation significant energy will be lost to the outside and the other energy that hits the turbine can be conceptually viewed as a tube of air that is subject to exactly the same analysis as was conducted in item 1. So for this tube of air it is better to reduce the amount of input energy as opposed to recovering it using a wind turbine.
   

In conclusion, although the exhaust wind turbine idea seems promising conceptually, it is not.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Now is the time to communicate with our elected officials!

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, also known as the “Economic Stimulus” package provides several alternatives for improving the economics of potential wind projects. Now is the time to let your elected officials know of your interest, and what you are doing about it.
The provisions of the law are intended to help projects become more economically viable by lessening the impact of high initial costs. Thus making wind projects even more attractive to you, the ones contemplating the project and to your elected officials who have a great interest in promoting renewable energy projects in their areas.
Many of the programs being established involve government grants and incentives. Your elected officials, at every level, may be in a position to influence the decisions that will assist you with your projects…but they have to know about them first!
Below is a sample letter that WECC has given to our clients to do just that. It is intended as a starting point. Copy and paste the letter, modify it as required, put it on your letterhead and explain to your officials what it is you, their constituent, are trying to accomplish.
Once you establish contact, WECC recommends periodic updates to ensure they have the up to date information to assist you as you move forward.
If you thought wind was not a cost-effective solution for your situation, now is the time to take a closer look. WECC can help, call us to learn how.

Letterhead

Dear (Elected official)
As our nation moves forward with programs aimed at reducing our dependence on foreign oil and allocates resources towards the development of alternative energy sources, I wanted to take this opportunity to describe to you our efforts in the pursuit of renewable, wind energy.
( Company/ City etc. Name) has commissioned/ will commission a (What you have done i.e. preliminary wind resource study) for our facility/ location in (city, state) Working with a professional wind consulting company, we have determined that the wind resource will support our expectations for a wind project to offset and stabilize our energy costs and assist in reducing the amount of non renewable energy that we use. We are aggressively pursuing our next step in the process, a (met tower, Turbine erection etc).and hope that your schedule will allow a personal update in the near future.
As we move through the complicated maze of project financing and execution, we would ask your assistance with (federal money, net metering legislation, whatever) as that would greatly enhance our ability to produce the results we seek in the emerging and all important field.
Thank you for the opportunity to inform you of our efforts in this project, we will keep you apprised of our progress.

Sincerely,

Article written by Matt Tuohy
Email Matt at tuohy@frombeginningtowind.com
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Energy, Economic Impact of the Stimulus, and Enthusiasm

An Overview of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 – The Stimulus Legislation… in recap form is now posted on our WECC website. It relates to both the features of the stimulus legislation that apply to the tax-paying segment and features that apply to the tax-exempt segment is now posted on our website It provides an update on the extension of the Production Tax Credit and the expanded Investment Tax Credit are described here. In addition the update describes some additional aspects of the incentives and features of the stimulus package that are favorable for those involved in wind energy projects. The white paper can be downloaded at: http://www.wind-consulting.com/white_papers.htm

Article written by Joseph Wiley

Email Joe at wiley@frombeginningtowind.com

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IEC Classification of Turbines: Selecting the right turbine for the site based on wind data

The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) creates and publishes standards for wind turbines among other electrical and electronics equipments. The IEC 61400 deals with wind turbine generators (WTG). This blog entry will explain turbine classes. Turbine classes are determined by three parameters the average wind speed, extreme 50-year gust, and turbulence. The following table explains the classifications.

WTG Class	I	II	III	IV
Vave average wind speed at hub-height (m/s)	10.0	8.5	7.5	6.0
V50 extreme 50-year gust (m/s)	70	59.5	52.5	42.0
I15 characteristic turbulence Class A	18%
I15 characteristic turbulence Class B	16%
α wind shear exponent	0.20

For standards purposes, wind speeds are measured every 3 seconds, and every 10 minutes wind speed and standard deviation are recorded. For design load calculations purposes the wind speed over 10 minutes is assumed to be a Rayleigh distribution.

All wind speeds in the above table are at hub height. The extreme wind speed are based on the 3 second average wind speed. I₁₅ Turbulence is the standard deviation of wind speed measured at 15 m/s wind speed.

As an illustration consider GE 1.5sle, a Class IIA WTG and GE 1.5xle a Class IIIB WTG. The Class IIA WTG has a rotor diameter of 77m and hub heights of 65m and 80m. It is designed for average wind speed at hub height of 8.5 m/s with turbulence of 18%.

The Class IIIB WTG has a rotor diameter of 82.5m and hub height of 80m. Because the Class IIIB WTG is designed for lower wind speed (7.5 m/s at hub height) and lower turbulence (16%), the design loads are going to be smaller, therefore its blades are larger and hub height is taller. Bigger rotors of Class IIIB WTGs therefore capture more wind energy and yield higher capacity factors compared to Class I or II WTG.

In conclusion, a wind resource assessment that is based on onsite wind measurements can provide not only the annual average wind speed, but also provide turbulence and extreme wind conditions. This data is necessary to select the class of a turbine. Wind data that is typically used for prospecting like reanalysis data and 10m airport wind data do not provide information about turbulence.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Wind Energy from Rooftop Turbines—Does it make sense?

There is immense interest in capturing wind energy with turbines installed on rooftops. This blog entry and the associated whitepaper will answer the questions: Does it make sense to place a wind turbine generator on a roof?

Examples of prominent rooftop installs include: Twenty 1KW Aerovironment turbines at Boston's Logan Airport, the Brooklyn Naval Shipyard, and on top of comedian Jay Leno's garage.

The results of rooftop installs are not encouraging. The Massachusetts Technology Collaborative (MTC) sampled 19 small wind turbines installed using MTC grants. The data revealed that the actual average power output is only 27 percent of that estimated, with the high being 59 percent and the low an abysmal 2 percent. As a result of poor performance, in the fall of 2008 MTC cancelled the small wind initiative.

What is not to like about rooftop turbines? These are some of the positive considerations: Wind speeds increase with height; the wind tends to accelerate as it rises over the eaves of the building; there is nothing on the roof anyway; and, energy is produced very close to where it will be used.

Some of the negatives are: Due to the eaves and building contour, there tends to be a sharp increase in turbulence that causes excessive and unbalanced loads on the turbine that lead to premature component failure; residential and most commercial roofs are not suitable as they were not designed to carry the additional weight, dynamic load and vibration of the wind turbine generator; commercial metal roofs are not suitable because of vibration induced noise; turbulence causes energy output to reduce significantly; turbulence causes the life of turbine to be significantly shorter; the orientation of the building significantly impacts the airflow; rooftops produce the rated amount of energy only when the wind direction is in a small 30 degree sector, and in all other wind directions there is a sharp drop in energy production.

At the recent 2009 American Wind Energy Association annual convention, Brad Cochran of CPP presented a paper on "Optimizing the Placement of Building Integrated Wind Turbines." The authors contend that:

• Proper placement of turbines on the roof is essential. The wind speeds can range from 0.1 to 1.5 times that wind speed at eave height. A location closest to the eave that is perpendicular to the predominant direction of wind is the best.
  
• Building orientation with respect to predominant direction of wind is important. The widest part of the building should be perpendicular to the predominant direction of wind. Rooftop installs makes sense only in situations where the most favorable wind conditions are in a 30 degree sector.
  
• Height of building and height of turbine above roof are important. A 400 ft building will experience significantly higher wind speeds at roof level compared to a 40 ft building. 30 to 50 feet above the rooftop will experience normal turbulence levels; any turbines below this height will encounter high turbulence intensities.
  

In conclusion, a rooftop turbine install makes sense in the following situations:

• Building is in a high wind area and the building is tall. The average wind speed at hub height should be at least 6 m/s, preferably higher.
  
• The predominant energy from wind is in a 30 degree sector. The orientation of the building must be such that the broad side of the building is perpendicular to the predominant wind direction.
  
• Turbine should be at least 30 ft (preferably 40 to 50 ft) above the rooftop and any other taller structure in the vicinity. For shorter buildings (20 ft or lower), consider other alternatives like installing turbine on a 70 to 100 ft pole. Any hub height less than this will not see sufficient wind resource.
  
• Rooftop must be able to withstand the moments due to forces on a 30 ft cantilever. Roof must also be able to withstand the weight of the turbine. Roof must be of thick concrete so it does not vibrate.
  
• The turbine should be located as close to the eave as possible.
  
• The selected turbine must be tested in high shear and high turbulence environment because a roof will experience such conditions.
  

Failure to follow these guidelines will lead to significant reduction in wind turbine output.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Renewable Energy and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Certification

In the recent years there has been a big push toward attaining LEED certification of buildings. In this entry I will describe the connection between renewable energy and LEED points, and describe ways to finance a renewable energy project that does not impact the cost.

When a "Design and Build" company proposes a LEED design to a developer, it chooses the most cost effective components of the design such that the points add up to the desired LEED level. For instance, if a designer wants to achieve a Gold level of LEED certification, then it needs 39 to 51 points. Inserting renewable energy generation into a project is a very expensive way to achieve this Gold target. There are several other significantly less expensive design options to accomplish the same goal.

My whitepaper argues that such a simplistic way of evaluating a renewable energy project is seriously flawed. A more sophisticated look reveals that on a variety of financial measures, a LEED design with renewable energy can be a very attractive investment in the long run. A wind project in a Class 3 wind area can yield substantial positive cash flow.

The whitepaper also describes financing mechanisms like performance contracting or other similar methods to pay for wind projects with no upfront costs.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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SODAR based Wind Measurements for Prospecting

Sonic Detection and Ranging (SODAR) is a ground based remote sensing technique for measuring wind speed in the three directions. It is based on Doppler shift in the frequency of the sound waves that are backscattered by temperature fluctuations in the atmosphere.

As the hub heights and blade lengths of turbines have increased, met-tower based measurements at 40, 50 and 60 meters, or sometimes 80 meters height are inadequate to provide an accurate estimate for wind speed at the hub height, let alone over the entire turbine rotor. With both hub heights and rotor diameter above 85m, met-towers of height 150m or more would be required to measure the wind speed over the entire turbine rotor. This would be cost prohibitive. SODAR provides an economical method to measure wind speed in this range of heights.

I have written a whitepaper that describes how SODAR may be cost effectively used for prospecting. With SODAR based measurements a developer is able to evaluate multiple sites in a short amount of time. For instance, over a period of 6 months, a developer may be able to evaluate 6 to 7 potential sites with real measurements at heights of 50 to 200 meters in increments of 10 meters. In most cases, short-term (4 weeks) SODAR measurements are sufficient for this task; it requires that the correlations with longer-term reference wind data be within acceptable range.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Truth in Rated Capacity and Power Curve of Turbines

Among the challenges in piecing together a wind project is the selection of a wind turbine. Several factors are used to determine the appropriate wind turbine for each project. Primary among these is using the manufacturer's rated capacity to estimate energy production.

Some turbine manufacturers claim higher turbine name-plate capacity and therefore higher energy production than what a customer will realize. We have observed this most frequently in smaller vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT) and less frequently in horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT). This is a particular problem if power ratings and power curves are not certified by an independent agency. I have written a whitepaper that will describe a quick method to verify, at a theoretical level, if a turbine's actual production will ever measure up to the claim. The analysis in the whitepaper and rules of thumb can be easily applied to assist you in evaluating a wind turbine for your project. A 'back-of-the-envelope' check, of both the rated capacity as stated by the manufacturer and the power curve supplied by the manufacturer, can prevent you from choosing a turbine that will not perform as advertised because, after all, the energy production cannot defy the laws of physics.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Cost of Energy for Small Wind Projects

In this entry I will talk about the cost of energy for small wind projects. The previous blog addressed how the cost of energy is computed and presented the cost of energy generation for utility scale turbines. The focus of this blog entry will be on turbines that are rated 10KW or less.

To recap, the cost of energy production depends on average annual energy production (AEP), total cost of installation, recurring cost for operations and maintenance, and the discount rate.

Three turbines will be compared in this analysis: Bergey 10KW with 7m rotor diameter and 30.5m hub height; SkyStream 2.4KW with 3.7m rotor diameter and 13.7m hub height; and MariahPower 1.2KW with 1.2m width and 6.1m height. The first two are horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT) and the third is a vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT).

The following parameters will be used for comparison purposes:

• Wind conditions: 7m/s at 50m, which is Class 3 wind regime
  
• Operations and maintenance costs: 1c per kWh of energy produced
  
• Annual sinking fund for repairs: 0.75% of total installed cost
  
• 3% inflation in costs
  
• Wind shear of 0.15; this is used to compute wind speed at hub height while assuming wind speed of 7m/s at 50m
  
• Life of wind project: 20 years
  
• Annual Energy Production (AEP) is computed based on power curves provided by the manufacturer
  

The following table contains average AEP, the installed cost and cost of energy.

Turbine	AEP	Total installed cost	Total installed cost per KW	Cost of Energy/ kWh
Bergey 10KW	18.76 MWh	$65K	$6,500	$0.365
SkyStream 2.4KW	5.3 MWh	$18- 20K	$7,500 – $8,333	$0.3596
MariahPower 1.2kW	2 MWh	$9 - 10K	$7,500 - $8,333	$0.4672

Note the cost of energy does not include incentives or tax credits.

Since VAWT do have a hub-height, for computation purposes the hub height was assumed to be the height of pole plus half the height of the turbine, which is equal to 6m for the Mariah Power VAWT. If the VAWT is installed on a roof, then the hub-height would have to be appropriately adjusted, although the impact of turbulence due to air flow along the edge of the building would reduce energy production.

Next, let us examine the impact of the investment tax credit (ITC) grant of 30% that is part of the current stimulus package. In cases where the investment per KW is large, the ITC is preferable over the production tax credit (PTC). For a more detailed description, see WECC whitepaper on the stimulus package.

Turbine	Cost of Energy/ kWh with 30% ITC grant
Bergey 10KW	$0.267
SkyStream 2.4KW	$0.2555
MariahPower 1.2kW	$0.3308

Note that as a result of the ITC grant the reduction in cost of energy is a little less than 30%.

Next, let us look at depreciation, the other major tax benefit. The stimulus package allows a bonus depreciation of 50%, in addition to the accelerated depreciation already allowed for renewable energy items, if the project is put in place before the end of 2009. When a project utilizes the 30% ITC grant, the depreciable basis of the project must be reduced by 50% of the grant amount. The following are costs per kWh when bonus depreciation is coupled with 5-year MACRS depreciation.

Turbine	Cost of Energy/ kWh with 30% ITC grant, bonus dep. & 5-yr MACRS
Bergey 10KW	$0.1758
SkyStream 2.4KW	$0.1657
MariahPower 1.2kW	$0.2133

Note, bonus depreciation in addition to accelerated depreciation leads to a further reduction of about 33% of the cost of energy than with the 30% ITC grant.

On the benefits front one other item requires mention: Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). RECs are a tradable certificate of proof that 1 kWh of electricity was produced using a renewable source. They are typically sold to businesses seeking to reduce their carbon footprint or to government agencies trying to meet renewable portfolio standards set by state or national mandate. Their pricing depends on market conditions related to the current supply and demand of RECs. The price of a REC is typically in the range of 0.5c to 2c.

In conclusion, if a small wind project is able to use all of the tax benefits of ITC and depreciation, then the cost of electricity is reduced by more than 50% of the original installed cost without incentives.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

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Cost of Producing Wind Energy

In this entry I will describe how the cost of generating energy is computed, compare the cost of alternative sources of generating energy, and provide estimates for cost per kWh of energy from distributed wind projects of size 1MW to 3MW.

The debate about comparing costs of energy can become heated. People with vested interests in a project naturally want to predict lower cost per kWh for their favorite generation method and predict higher cost per kWh for the rest. In this article we will present a range of costs for comparison purposes. WECC understands wind energy and is very familiar with the various wind energy project costs; we rely on independent sources for costing information about non-wind projects.

A March 29, 2009 New York Times article quoted a Black & Veatch study that compared the cost of energy from new installations: “A modern coal plant of conventional design, without technology to capture carbon dioxide before it reaches the air, produces at about 7.8 cents a kilowatt-hour; a high-efficiency natural gas plant, 10.6 cents; and a new nuclear reactor, 10.8 cents. A wind plant in a favorable location would cost 9.9 cents per kilowatt hour.”

If the penetration of wind energy is high in a grid, then additional natural gas generators are needed to serve loads when there is no wind. So in these situations the article further states that … “But if a utility relied on a great many wind machines, it would need to back them up with conventional generators in places where demand tends to peak on hot summer days with no breeze. That pushes the price up to just over 12 cents, making it more than 50 percent more expensive than a kilowatt-hour for coal.” In the US such a situation has not arrived yet, because wind in less than 2% of the total energy generation.

This article elicited a response from Joseph Romm. According to him, the cost of nuclear power from a newly constructed plant would be in the range of 15c to 25c per kWh, and a new coal plant will produce electricity at 11c per kWh (with no cost of emitting CO2).

Moving along to the second source, a January 2009 article in WindPower Monthly compared cost of energy in Europe and USA. For Onshore wind farm installations at a total installed cost of 1,300 Euros/kW (or $1,690 /kW), the cost of wind energy is in the range of 0.105 Euros per kWh with wind speed at 6m/s, 0.078 Euros per kWh with wind speed of 7m/s, and 0.060 Euros per kWh with wind speed of 8m/s. All wind speeds are at a 50m elevation. In comparison according to this article the cost of coal is 0.060 Euros/kWh plus 0.020 Euros/kWh of CO2 cost (for countries that have a carbon emissions tax); cost of nuclear generated energy is 0.045 Euros/kWh; cost of natural gas generated energy is 0.045 Euros/kWh plus 0.012 Euros/kWh of CO2 cost. The article mentions that the cost of nuclear power has been underestimated.

The third source of wind energy cost data is from NREL: $0.085/kWh in areas with class 3 wind (6.4 to 7m/s at 50m); $0.075/kWh in areas of class 4 wind (7 to 7.5m/s at 50m). These costs exclude the cost of transmission and integration into the grid or connection behind the meter, and the benefits of Production Tax Credit (PTC), grants and other tax credits.

The final source of wind energy cost data is from us, WECC. For distributed wind projects of size of 1MW to 3MW that are typically installed at a school, municipality, factory or other facilities the cost of electricity is typically in the range of: $0.090/kWh to $0.107/kWh with wind speed of 7m/s. The assumptions for this cost estimate are: total installed cost of $2,600 per kW; $0.010/kWh for O&M cost; 0.75% of total install cost for annual sinking fund. For the above computations three turbines were used: Vergnet 1MW, Vensys 1.5MW and Fuhrlander 2.5MW. These computations assume no incentives and no tax credits. So the cost estimates are true cost numbers from which incentives like PTC of 2.1c may be subtracted.

In conclusion, in most class 3 areas, the cost of wind energy is lower than the retail rate of electricity for most consumers in the US.

As a footnote, let me explain cost of energy. In the electric generation industry cost of energy is defined in terms of Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE). A more detailed description of LCOE including a formula, are presented in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelised_energy_cost. In the case of a wind project, LCOE takes into account the total installed cost of project, the recurring O&M costs and other administrative costs, and the amount of annual energy production along with appropriate discount rate. To further elaborate, LCOE does not depend on tariffs, incentives, taxes, equity/loan structure, interest rates, etc.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

Visit Wind Energy Consulting and Contracting Inc.

Economics of a wind project

In this blog I will discuss the economics of a wind project, with a focus on total installed cost of a wind project.

The most recent source of total installed cost of wind project is from the January 2009 issue of WindPower Monthly. It reported that the average total cost of fully installed projects in 2008 was 1,502 Euros per KW (or $1,950/KW at 1.3 conversion rate). The average was take over 3,600MW of installs worldwide in 2008. The range of costs was 1,300 to 1,700 Euros per KW. Although this data is skewed towards large wind farm projects, it serves as a lower bound for a community wind project of size 1 MW to 10MW.

A second source of total installed cost is from NREL's May 2008 report "Annual Report on US Wind Power Installation, Cost and Performance Trends: 2007" It reports that an average cost in 2008 was $1,920/KW, $210/KW higher than the previous year. The average cost in 2007 was $1,710/KW with a range of $1,240 to $2,600/KW.

One would expect economies of scale in wind projects, meaning large wind farms would be cheaper to install compared to single turbine installation; the NREL data does not convincingly support this assertion. Personally, this is surprising. I would expect large wind farms to receive larger discounts on turbines, incur lower setup and mobilization costs for cranes and other equipments, and spread out the initial cost of wind measurement and consulting. Nevertheless this is what the data shows.

There seems to be a significant variation in cost by region. The Heartland region has the lowest cost; the Great Lakes region, Mountain states, Texas, the Northwest, and California have similar costs; with New England showing the highest costs.

The cost of turbine is the biggest component of the total installed cost. The turbine typically represents 60 to 70% of the cost. Turbine prices reached a low of $700/KW in 2000-2002, and have risen about $600/KW in 2006-2007. The prices stand at $1,125 to 1,240/KW. The other components of the total installed cost include: Consulting/design; construction of foundation and access roads; erection of turbine; electrical equipments like transformers, protective relays; commissioning of turbine; and other associative costs.

For smaller projects, the total installed cost (TIC) may be much higher. As examples consider the following single turbines and their TIC:

1. 10KW Bergey, the TIC is $6,000 to $7,500/kW
   
2. 100KW Northern Power, the TIC is $6,000 to $6,500/KW
   
3. 275KW Vergnet, the TIC is $2,500 or less
   
4. 1MW to 2.5MW, the TIC would be about $2,500 to as high as $3,000
   

The TIC depends on several factors: exchange rate, terrain, transportation costs, distance to transmission and others. The TIC has to be estimated for a specific project based on local conditions.

In the next blog, I will discuss Operations and Maintenance costs and the cost of producing electricity using wind.

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

Visit Wind Energy Consulting and Contracting Inc.

A few common questions about wind projects, from the Technical Side

In this blog I will list common questions that we have encountered from organizations that are considering adding wind energy to their portfolio of energy resources. In subsequent blogs I will answer the questions in some detail and point you to resources that will help you to answer the question. As with any endeavor like this, answers are not always crisp and precise; the answer usually starts with “It depends.” In my answers I will help you to understand: A) What the answer depends on? B) Why does the answer depend on it? and C) Any other the issues related to the answer.

1. What are the economics of a wind project? How much does it cost to install a wind project? How much of the total install cost is turbine cost? What is the cost of producing energy using wind? How does this cost compare with other sources like coal, natural gas, solar and others?
   
2. Which country leads the world in wind energy production? Which country has the highest penetration of wind energy in electricity generation? Is there a limit to the maximum penetration of wind?
   
3. Wind 101. How is wind generated? How much wind speed do I need for a viable wind project? What is shear? What is turbulence? How do I measure wind speed?
   
4. Turbine 101. What are the major components of a turbine? What are the major types of turbines? Who certifies turbines?
   
5. Project Siting 101. What are the main considerations when siting a wind project? What are the impacts on the environment from a wind project? How serious is the issue about killing of birds and bats? Which agencies will I need approval from? What are the other studies and analyses that I need to perform?
   
6. Wind Resource Assessment 101. How do I find out wind speed at my location? What are the limitations of high level wind resource maps? What kind of wind resource analysis is required to get a project funded?
   

My focus will be on projects of the size of 50KW to 10MW. This is not a hard and fast range, but a range that the industry refers to as small wind, distributed wind and community wind. WECC’s niche market consist of school districts, colleges/universities, municipalities, factories, hotels, and a variety of other facilities.

Find more details at http://www.frombeginningtowind.com

Article written by Dr. Pramod Jain

Email Pramod at pramod@frombeginningtowind.com

Visit Wind Energy Consulting and Contracting Inc.

Wind is But a Piece of the Puzzle

Renewable energy is not the total answer to solve the energy dilemma, but is certainly part of the solution to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, and wind is but a piece in solving the larger puzzle. When I think about the impact that renewable energy can have on a school, manufacturing plant, municipality or any location where the high and increasing cost of energy can be mitigated, I think back to a visit I made a couple of years ago to the Massachusetts Maritime Academy at Buzzards Bay. This school has its collective act together, in my view. Upon entering the campus one immediately sees a beautiful, gently spinning Vestas 660 wind turbine generator. Under the campus football field a geo-thermal system is buried. There are photo voltaic arrays on dormitories, and solar powered trash compactors spread throughout the campus. The point I am making is that this institution is using several solutions to counter the high cost of energy, and they are doing it effectively.

Wind energy is a solution worth considering. Wind energy is loved by some, hated by others, and misunderstood by many. With the primary wind energy focus around the world on large wind farms and transmission issues, we will use this blog as an opportunity to write about the many issues that can determine the success or failure of a smaller scale wind project. Whether it be a one wind turbine generator “behind the meter” installation to augment power at a school , farm or manufacturing plant or a group of landowners coming together to develop a community wind project for purposes of selling power to the grid, I am confident that you will find the information stimulating and beneficial. Whitepaper downloads are available at www.frombeginningtowind.com/whitepaper.

In the coming weeks, the Wind Energy Consulting & Contracting (WECC) staff will publish a steady flow of informative white papers and blog entries regarding a variety of topics that will provide readers with sound and reliable information to help take the mystery out of wind projects. In closing, my nature is to be direct, and therefore there will be issues that I address that may appear controversial to some. My goal is to create a healthy exchange of ideas and information.

Article written by Wayne Hildreth

Email Wayne at hildreth@frombeginningtowind.com

Visit Wind Energy Consulting and Contracting Inc.